Industry Overview
The global aerospace industry can broadly be categorized into two sectors. The commercial aerospace sector consists of companies that produce large commercial aircraft, regional aircraft, light aircraft (such as helicopters and business jets), aircraft engines, parts and auxiliary equipment, and commercial satellites. Dominated by Boeing in the United States and Airbus in Europe, the primary end customer is the global airline industry. As such, demand is generally correlated with global economic activity, which drives spending on air travel. Fuel prices also play a substantial role, as the airline industry is forecasted to spend $176 billion on fuel in 2011, representing 30% of global airline operating costs.
The defense aerospace sector is comprised of companies that produce aircraft, engines, parts, equipment, weapons systems, and military satellites. Major companies in the sector include Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, Boeing, General Dynamics, and BAE Systems. Demand is driven by defense spending, led globally by the United States with spending of approximately $700 billion in 2010, more than five times that of the second largest spender, China.
Recent Trends
The two sectors of the aerospace industry were moving in opposite directions during the first half of 2011.
In commercial aerospace, after suffering significant contraction in passenger volumes and massive losses in the economic meltdown of 2008 and 2009, the industry rebounded significantly in 2010 and is generating strong top-line growth in 2011. In the first half of the year, record passenger volumes were on pace to generate record revenues on a global basis for the airline industry.
At the same time, high fuel prices are negatively impacting airline profitability. In June 2011, the International Air Transportation Association (IATA) downgraded its 2011 airline industry profit forecast to $4.0 billion, which represents a 54% decline from the $8.6 billion profit forecast in March 2011 and a 78% decline from the $18 billion net profit recorded in 2010.1 The reasons for this downward revision include the lingering impact of the earthquake in Japan, continued unrest in the Middle East and North Africa, and recent increases in fuel prices. By June 2011, the average oil price for 2011 had been revised upward to $110 per barrel, a 15% increase over the previous forecast of $96 per barrel.2
Nonetheless, the expectation of continued high volume of passenger travel is creating strong demand for new aircraft production, resulting in high order volumes, especially for fuel-efficient aircraft, and increased build rates for aircraft. Between the two global titans, Boeing and Airbus, Airbus is currently winning the battle, with almost four times Boeing’s order base for the first half of 2011.
Increasing backlog and build rates are benefitting the supply chain, with manufacturers experiencing extended lead times and firming prices. Suppliers of aerostructures, electronics, engines, and components are all benefitting from this dynamic. Global airline industry revenues and passengers for 2011 are forecasted to be $598 billion in revenues and 2.8 billion passengers, both representing record levels exceeding the prior highs of 2008. Overall passenger volume as measured by RPKs (revenue passenger kilometers) is forecasted to increase at a 5% annual rate through 2014. In the defense aerospace subsector, overall pressure on government spending and budgetary concerns have cast a pall over the industry as spending is “reprioritized.” Major (and costly) programs are being cut or deferred, while more cost-efficient programs are enjoying increased spending.
In January 2011, U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates announced proposed cuts in U.S. defense spending of $178 billion between fiscal 2012 and fiscal 2016, including a two year delay in the Marine Corps version of the F-35 “Joint Strike Fighter” jet produced by Lockheed Martin.3 In April 2011, just hours before a government shutdown, the U.S. Congress passed the 7th continuing resolution – a type of appropriations legislation used to fund government agencies in the absence of a formal appropriations bill – for fiscal 2011. As a result of the continuing resolution, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) must maintain existing funding levels for all programs and may not make any new program awards. Also in April 2011, Secretary Gates announced a comprehensive review to identify $400 billion of cuts in defense spending by fiscal 2023.4 While many representatives of the defense aerospace industry believe that funding should be stable over the next two to three years (especially during the transition to new U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta), significant uncertainty and risk clouds the outlook.5
Opportunities for Growth
With commercial airframe manufacturers and their supplier base enjoying strong order demand and build rates, Boeing is falling well behind Airbus in new orders in 2011. With orders for 640 new aircraft in the first half of 2011, Airbus has already exceeded its full year total for 2010 of 574, and has nearly four times the order volume of Boeing, which generated 171 new orders through June of 2011.
While Boeing and Airbus are the primary beneficiaries, secondary aircraft manufacturers, such as Brazil-based Embraer and Canadabased Bombardier, should continue to benefit from significant growth in Asia. According to industry analysts, over 27,000 new airplanes will be needed over the next 15 years to satisfy global demand, with the global airplane fleet growing from 17,000 to over 35,000 by 2026.6 Airlines in the Asia-Pacific region are expected to acquire the largest percentage of new aircraft; Boeing forecasts air traffic in the Asia-Pacific region to grow at a 7% annual rate over the next 20 years. The impact of this growth is already being felt. At the Paris Air Show in June 2011, Airbus secured 418 firm orders valued at $44 billion, and many of these orders came from carriers in Asia such as Malaysia-based AirAsia and India-based IndiGo and GoAir.7 Middle East- and Africa-based carriers are also growing. For example, Kenya Airways flew to 42 non-domestic African cities as of June 2011, up from 16 in 2000, and Ethiopian Airlines flew to 35 African cities outside Ethiopia as of June 2011, up from 22 in 2000.8
In the more mature markets of the United States and Europe, makers of large commercial aircraft will benefit from the replacement of older fleets among established airlines. The importance of fuel efficiency is demonstrated by the success of the Airbus A320neo (new engine option). Launched in December 2010 with the promise of a 15% improvement in fuel efficiency, the aircraft has already become the most successful aircraft launch in history, with 1,029 new orders since December 2010, including 667 orders worth $61 billion at the 2011 Paris Air Show in June. Pratt & Whitney, GE, and CFM are all producing new engines for this aircraft. Incidents such as the five-foot-long hole that opened up in a Boeing 737 operated by Southwest in April 2011 could lead to new inspection procedures and cause airlines to spend more on outsourced fleet maintenance and modernization. In addition, as carrier profits continue to be squeezed by high fuel costs, there should be opportunities for companies that perform outsourced fleet maintenance services (as airlines try to reduce capital costs by extending the lives of existing fleets), as well as companies that can develop more fuel-efficient technologies.
Finally, while not a significant part of the overall market, companies that compete in the U.S. commercial space market should continue to see growth opportunities. In April 2011, NASA awarded seed money to four companies for work on commercial crew vehicles in the second round of its Commercial Crew Development (CCDev-2) program, granting a total of $269.3 million to mature concepts for private spacecraft to carry astronauts to the International Space Station and other low-Earth-orbit destinations.9 Among the winners were Boeing ($92 million), Sierra Nevada Corp. ($80 million), and Space Exploration Technologies Inc. ($75 million).
While the outlook is somewhat bleaker for the defense aerospace market due to burgeoning government budget deficits, there are significant growth opportunities for companies that make unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), commonly referred to as “drones.” UAVs are cheaper to produce (since they do not require the same level of redundancy and safety requirements) and safer (since no human pilot is at risk) than manned aircraft. Most important, UAVs are often better suited than piloted aircraft for modern day warfare – such as counterinsurgency strikes in places like Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Libya – and for the intelligence gathering activities of the CIA and other agencies that make up the intelligence community. Teal Group, a Virginia-based market research firm, has estimated that UAV spending will almost double over the next 10 years from current worldwide UAV expenditures of $5.9 billion per year to $11.3 billion per year.10 And, there are potential applications for UAV technology outside of the military, including robotic cargo planes, weather monitoring, and border patrol surveillance. Dozens of manufacturers participate in this robust market globally, ranging from large defense contractors (Boeing, Lockheed, Northrop) to foreign competitors (Israel Aircraft Industries, Elbit, Dassault) to niche U.S. manufacturers (General Atomics, Aerovironment).
Other growth opportunities for defense aerospace companies include the production of missiles, since missile stockpiles will need to be replenished as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan draw to a close. Furthermore, companies that are certified as small businesses by the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) could see some opportunity for growth. In order to reach its goal of awarding 23% of all contract dollars to small businesses, the U.S. government might allow, and possibly mandate, agencies to allow small business set-asides under multiple award contracts such as the General Services Administration’s (GSA) Schedule program and other indefinite delivery-indefinite quantity (IDIQ) contracts.11 (Currently, agencies are not required to provide set-asides for task and delivery orders under these contract vehicles, which account for almost 30% of federal procurement spending.) Finally, similar to commercial aerospace companies, defense aerospace companies have been looking overseas – and especially in Asia – for growth opportunities. China and India incur over $90 billion and $30 billion, respectively, in annual defense spending, and continued growth is expected for both markets.
Valuation Metrics
As shown on the chart above, after bottoming out in the first quarter of 2009, pricing multiples for publicly traded companies in both the civil aerospace and defense aerospace subsectors rebounded by the first quarter of 2010. Since then, however, pricing metrics among civil aerospace companies have largely held up, and have even increased. By contrast, pricing multiples for defense aerospace companies have faltered due to the proposed cuts in defense spending and the negative impact of the continuing resolution on new contract awards. Not coincidentally, the trend in pricing multiples mirrors the relative performance of the commercial aerospace and defense aerospace subsectors: U.S. durable goods manufacturers’ shipments of nondefense aircraft and parts increased 6% in the first four months of 2011 compared to the same period in 2010, whereas U.S. durable goods manufacturers’ shipments of military aircraft and parts declined 21% in the first four months of 2011 compared to the same period in 2010.12
M&A Activity
Relative to 2010, merger and acquisition (M&A) volume in 2011 started out slowly, but accelerated by the first quarter of 2011.
Within the civil aerospace subsector, much of the M&A activity has involved aircraft component manufacturers being acquired by strategic buyers, as large manufacturers seek to streamline and control their supply chains. Non-U.S. companies seeking access to the U.S. market via acquisition has also contributed to the increase in deal volume. In the defense aerospace subsector, the continuing resolution and proposed cuts in defense spending have led to an increase in M&A activity, as large primes are forced to make acquisitions to achieve growth in a government-spending environment where organic growth is hard to come by. In addition, both civil aerospace and defense aerospace companies continue to make strategic acquisitions to gain access to proprietary and cutting-edge technologies. Irrespective of the challenges currently faced by the aerospace industry, the M&A markets are expected to remain active in the near-term.
1 “Airline Industry 2011 Profit Outlook Slashed to $4 Billion,” IATA Press Release, 6 June 2011.
2 Ibid.
3 Ratnam, Gopal and Roxana Tiron, “Gates to Cut Marine Vehicle, Plans $178 Billion Cuts,” Bloomberg News, 6 January 2011.
4 Capaccio, Tony, “Gates Launches ‘Comprehensive Review’ to Find $400 Billion in Defense Cuts,” Bloomberg News, 14 April 2011.
5 Pasztor, Andy and Nathan Hodge, “Defense Sector Sees Delayed Outlay Cuts,” Wall Street Journal, 22 June 22 2011, B4.
6 “Aerospace Products & Parts Manufacturing”, FirstResearch Industry Profile, 25 April 2011.
7 Rothman, Andrea and Jasmine Wang, “Asia Dominates Paris Air Show,” Bloomberg News, 23 June 2011.
8 “Looking East,” The Economist, 16 June 2011.
9 Morring Jr., Frank, “NASA Provides Seed Money For CCDEV-2,” Aviation Week, 19 April 2011
10 Smith, Mike, “UAV Market Will Total Just Over $94 Billion in Its Just Released 2011 UAV Market Profile and Forecast,” sUAS News, 1 March 2011.
11 Brodsky, Robert, “SBA Considering Mandating Set-Asides on Multiple Award Contracts,” GovernmentExecutive.com, 30 March 2011.
12 “Aerospace Products & Parts Manufacturing”, FirstResearch Industry Profile, 25 April 2011.
